When will GTA VI appear? Let’s analyse what premiere date can be

If there is something we can be sure of, then it is the creation of GTA VI. It is inevitable, just like a sunrise. The date of the return of the sandbox king remains secret. However, we can indicate several probable dates. 

Schedule in a nutshell

• 2019 – For many different reasons, it is practically impossible. The marketing campaign would already be in motion.
• 2020 – Quite probable. Here, we should also remember the upcoming newest generation of consoles.
• 2021 – Considering all the changes in the prestigious vocations in the company and delays caused by it, the date is still likely to be true. However, we do not believe Rockstar is aiming at it.
• 2022 and 2023 – too late! We might not even live that long…

GTA VI is not a Half-Life 3. It has to be released. It is not a game like Duke Nukem Forever – once it is out, it will not be an average production. It will most likely beat some records because it is being created by the “Rock Stars” themselves. They always surprise us and set a bar relatively high when releasing something. Red Dead Redemption II was just a confirmation of the company’s domination. Rockstar can do anything they want for as long as they want and with any budget they want, as long as it fits their requirements. Yes, it takes time. However, we believe the time will come in 2020 or 2021.

There are a lot of indications that point to the game’s premiere in these years. That is why we will focus precisely on them. However, we will also take some time to consider other options. A lot has happened at Rockstar in recent times. A lot of personal changes happened. GTA V, especially GTA Online, is still taking money from the players, just like Michelle Pfeiffer was taking cocaine in Scarface.

Meanwhile, Red Dead Online is not doing as well as GTA Online (although the sales are pretty well). Since the giant needs to stay up high to develop, we will notice brand new projects from them sooner or later. GTA VI is an obvious choice. The only question is: when?

2019 – False Start

Chance for the premiere to happen:

The game needs a bit of time to spread its wings. 2019, or its second, already shrinking half, is definitely not a realistic date. Instead, I mention it as a courtesy because the industry has seen such miracles. An example is the dragon’s entrance and the debut of Apex Legends.

The GTA series didn’t have such a long publishing break. It’s been six years since the release of GTA V. It is longer than the two previous parts. The players’ patience has limits, and they have already started to act picky, with their expectations raised to the sky. We are talking about one of the companies that can boast with players’ trust. Especially in recent years after releasing several megahits that took the gaming industry in a new direction.

This is why 2019 is an unrealistic date. It is too early. Such titles should appear on the market shelves before Christmas, so the marketing campaign and teasing players would begin in the first half of the year, around March or April, alternatively during E3, even if Rockstar does not think of this particular expo very well. It’s simply because such a giant needs to gain momentum, even if we are talking about such certainty.

Early Start

You may not remember this, but the first GTA V trailer appeared on November 2, 2011. It was almost two years, or if you prefer, 684 days before the world’s premiere. The first Red Dead Redemption II trailer appeared on October 20, 2016. The game hit the market on October 26, 2018, almost two years later.

Besides that, GTA Online is making a lot of money (according to an analyst from Niko Partners, it makes up to $700 million every year). It will make a lot of money in the next year, especially when we notice that there are still a lot of players on the servers performing incredible stunts. All their crazy ideas that bend the laws of physics, logic, or the game world are crossing every line! Moreover, they are getting millions of views on YouTube and during streams. Red Dead Redemption II and its Internet component need some space and time to develop and earn money. Why would they prematurely take away the income from already released projects?

Three quarters of 2020 – the race with new consoles

Chance for the premiere to happen: 30%

This is where it starts to be interesting. Several factors indicate that 2020 may be the perfect time for Rockstar to present their latest GTA. Some rumors say that the current consoles will grill themselves sooner than handle the sixth path of the bandit cycle. However, this date makes a lot of sense despite potential hardware limitations and considering scenarios that have already taken place.

It would seem that aiming at 2021 to help the next generation of consoles (the new Xbox is expected to appear on the market before Christmas in 2020, and PS5 will appear nearly simultaneously) is a great marketing plan, but it may not. Rockstar doesn’t care about the results of new consoles. They care about their results. This is why releasing a potential hit on the new platform at starting the catalog is not ideal. Quite the opposite – it limits the potential client base to those who can afford new, expensive devices. And this is not the case.

Rockstar should do everything it can to release the game before the successors of Xbox One and PS4 appear. It’s simple – thanks to that, the game would be in the pockets of 150 million owners of eight-generation consoles. Indeed, the game wouldn’t be as beautiful as it would look on the latest generation consoles, but it would be much more available. Since the premiere of Xbox One and PlayStation 4 successors would come, these two would get cheaper. Therefore, the potential number of users would be even more significant, especially if we remember that PS5 and Xbox, with the working title Scarlett, are unlikely to offer revolutionary changes in their hardware (although the performance will be much higher).

For this reason, the end of 2020 is one of the most probable release dates for PS4 and Xbox One versions.

Will they have enough time for it?

On the other hand, Red Dead Redemption II hit the market a few months ago, at the end of 2018. Now, the PC version is most likely to be released. Moreover, the plan is to refresh the game for the next generation’s consoles. The question is: how many of the 2000 Rockstar workers (as of 2018) are now working on GTA VI, and how many started even before the premiere of RDR II? Because if the production of the following GTA began only on the day of the debut of RDR II, then there would not be enough time. There was a five-year gap between the appearance of GTA V and RDR.II, and yet each subsequent game by Rockstar is bigger and more ambitious than before. Although we are talking about such a huge company that they might as well work on two projects simultaneously

The last quarter of 2020 and 2021 – spare date

Chance for the premiere to happen: 40%

The problem with implementing the above scenario, namely the game’s premiere before the appearance of ninth-generation consoles, might result from the personal changes in Rockstar in recent years. Although it is a gigantic company with many branches, and brothers Sam and Dan Houser look after it, one piece of the puzzle is missing now. Not long ago, Housers’ machine lost one of its key cogs responsible for a large part of the creative process of all GTA parts since the revolutionary “Three.”

In 2016, the lawsuit between Take Two, Rockstar, Housers, and the producer Leslie Benzis was quite spectacular. The latter claimed he was removed from the company to prevent him from making more profits. The entire thing lasted until February 2019, but the damage to the GTA series was done. This man played a vital role in creating the concept of all the editions of the Bandit saga from the moment it entered the world of 3D graphics.

Anthem showed how dangerous it is to have no firm leadership and vision. Rockstar was much more aware, and they have never made a mistake like this so far. The Housers publicly admitted that selecting the fitting successor after Benzies takes time because, from this person, the game’s vision will be dependent. Even if they can choose one out of hundreds of their employees, it is understandable that they have doubts. GTA VI cannot be just a good game. It has to exceed expectations and raise the stakes.

This is one of the reasons why GTA VI will be late for the potentially most profitable release date we described earlier. Rockstar has mastered the philosophy of “when it’s done” regarding publishing games to perfection. They have often postponed the premiere – see the case of RDR 2 – and somehow, it has always paid off. With the studio’s position, they do not need such a comfortable starting place for the debut of consoles to dominate the market and earn hundreds of millions of dollars. It is the other way around – others adapt to Rockstar.

2022 and 2023 – The last call

Chance for the premiere to happen: 30%

These are distant dates for the players. Postponing the premiere of one of the hottest titles of all time until the next decade might be a huge test of fans’ patience. This might be when players put GTA VI between Half-Life 3 and Duke Nukem Forever. It harms the game and can take away some potential buyers.

Years later than 2021 can be taken into account mainly because the newest generation of consoles will already be the main power on the market and will receive quite a large number of users. As a result, Rockstar could hit with everything they’ve got. Moreover, such a date would give the company much time to carry out the production. However, GTA V made its debut in September 2013. 9-10 years is quite a long time for a break, even if we received RDR II along the way. It is twice as long as waiting for GTA V (Shareholders are unlikely to forgive such a thing; what about the players?).

How many years have we been waiting so far?

• Grand Theft Auto – 1997
• Grand Theft Auto II – 1999 (two years)
• Grand Theft Auto III – 2001 (two years)
• Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – 2002 (year)
• Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – 2004 (two years)
• Grand Theft Auto IV – 2008 (four years)
• Grand Theft Auto V – 2013 (five years)
• Grand Theft Auto VI – ??? (already six years)

We can see that breaks are getting longer, and it’s not surprising – each consecutive GTA installment requires more and more work. The question is how great GTA VI will be.

The heist of the century

Every good heist needs some planning – this is what GTA V taught us. The game’s release is similar, though it turns out to be a venture with millions of variables to consider.

The most likely scenario is for the game to appear in late 2020. The leaks indicate that there have been a lot of works on the successor of GTA V. Although Tim Neff, an actor responsible for the leak with unfortunate online CVs, denied the rumors, it looked like covering up traces after a failure. After all, we are talking about a giant company that always plans many years ahead. And even if there are delays, they result from the desire to refine consecutive installments, not from a lack of ideas or production efficiency.

We are sure that one of the branches of Rockstar has been developing concepts, or even the game’s prototype, for quite a long time. We all know that until recently, RDR II and Red Dead Online consumed most of the resources. In the meantime, others could quickly think about another mega-hit.

This is why we believe that “Rock Stars” will hit the closing moment of PS4 and XONE when they can reach the most significant number of players. Later, there will be a version for the next generation and an online component providing producers enormous cash. We will also receive a PC version of the game at some point. I am confident about the PC version because GTA V followed the same road. Does anyone know at least one good reason why such a game shouldn’t be available on PC? Rockstar will have to hurry, but thanks to that, they can sell the game twice – on older and newer consoles. After all, everyone wants to play the new GTA as soon as possible.